CS2 items are speculative digital collectibles and can lose value because of updates (supply), demand, fees and liquidity. Valve takes a 15% Steam marketplace fee on every subsequent skin sale, and most case drops are Mil-Spec or Restricted items priced well below the cost of the case itself. If 8 of your 10 items are from the Kilowatt Collection, there’s an 80% chance the output comes from Kilowatt’s next tier.
A case, an Armory reward and a held market item can all show ROI, but they do not share the same risk. Past Operation item costs rely on a $0.45 castawaycase.com USD per star rate when acquired directly from Steam. Explore our site, dive into the FAQs, and let’s elevate your CS gaming experience together! The combined house edge on mid-priced active cases typically sits in the 30-50% range. The trade-up finder surfaces profitable contracts where the math tilts in your favor. Case opening is only rational when the case’s ROI exceeds 100% , you come out ahead on average, or when you value the variance as entertainment.
It is a research table that compares cases and Armory rewards by entry cost (expected value), expected profit, profit chance, Unbox ROI and Investing ROI. Combining entry cost (expected value), profit chance and liquidity gives a more complete picture than any single column. CS Profit’s dataset refreshes regularly so the EV and ROI columns reflect current marketplace levels, with the last-updated timestamp visible in the table. Expected value is the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes from a CS2 case opening.
The math is the same formula Valve uses in its published 2017 drop-odds disclosure. ROI is that expected value divided by the total cost (case plus key). Long-term data shows that nearly every actively-dropping case returns between 50% and 70% of what you spend.
Live expected value — ROI, and profit chance for every container.
Is opening CS2 cases profitable in 2026?
- To illustrate (if a container is priced at $10 and boasts an ROI of 50%), it will yield an average of $5 per container.
- If 8 of your 10 items are from the Kilowatt Collection, there’s an 80% chance the output comes from Kilowatt’s next tier.
- The Simulate page is a tool enabling users to mimic container unboxing and assess their likelihood of obtaining specific items or wear.
- Armory rewards are not normal marketplace listings.
- Live expected value — ROI, and profit chance for every container.
Pricing refreshes every 15 minutes across all 12 markets. A case with negative ROI on Steam can be positive on a third-party market when supply and demand diverge. Container prices and drop prices differ across every marketplace we track. A case can show high ROI with low profit chance when the positive number concentrates in rare outcomes. 72.8% means you recover 72.8 cents on average for every dollar, a 27.2% profit margin loss. Updated every 15 minutes across 12 markets.
The timestamp of the last update can be viewed by researchers in the table, allowing them to review rows after significant shifts in the marketplace. The marketplace routinely updates the CS Profit dataset. The entry cost is compared to a case’s anticipated value to calculate ROI.
After selecting a container, users specify the number of simulations they wish to run, resulting in a pie chart that illustrates the probabilities of receiving each item or wear. Additionally — it shows the odds for different rarities, items, and StatTrak. Items of the highest value are displayed at the top, with their size indicating the average value when unboxed.